2024年对产品经理的创新有借鉴价值的40+个大想法（上）

本翻译仅供参考，不代表译者任何观点！

原文发布在a16z Cultural Leadership Fund，该基金由风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz 创建，其创始人之一的Ben Horowitz拥有多年的产品管理经验，被马克·扎克伯格称为“我们这些硅谷年轻企业家的管理导师”，也被誉为硅谷“最著名的50个天使投资人之一”，也是为数不多的偏重于产品经理思维的投资人。

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Smart energy grids. Voice-first companion apps.Programmable medicines. AI tools for kids.We asked over 40 partners across a16z to preview one big idea they believe will drive innovation in 2024.

智能能源网、语音辅助应用程序、可编程药物、儿童人工智能工具。我们请a16z的40多个合作伙伴预测一个他们认为将在2024年推动创新的大创意。

As technological development has heightened living standards, so, too, has it raised our expectations of what it means to live in a safe society. Yet many of our cities grapple with understaffed police, fire, and public safety services. While we’ve seen tech advancements benefit consumers and businesses, public safety lags far behind.

随着技术发展提高了生活水平，也提高了我们对生活在安全社会的期望。然而，我们的许多城市都面临着警察、消防和公共安全服务人员不足的问题。当我们看到科技进步惠及消费者和企业时，公共安全却远远落在后面。

Why can’t we connect with 911 operators on FaceTime or WhatsApp to easily share photos and videos from the scene? Why do we wait for an emergency vehicle to arrive at an accident site to understand what’s happening when drones can get there faster and provide “eye in the sky” perspectives for first responders en route? According to the FBI, a car is stolen every 23 seconds in the U.S., and 40% are never recovered. Why let a crime remain unsolved when cameras and sensors can track vehicles constantly and over hundreds of miles?

为什么我们不能通过 FaceTime 或 WhatsApp 与 911 接线员联系，轻松分享现场的照片和视频？既然无人机可以更快到达事故现场，并在途中为急救人员提供 "天眼 "视角，为什么我们还要等急救车到达事故现场才能了解发生了什么？根据美国联邦调查局（FBI）的数据，美国每 23 秒就有一辆汽车被盗，其中 40% 的汽车再也找不回来了。既然摄像头和传感器可以在数百英里范围内持续追踪车辆，为什么还要让犯罪悬而未决呢？

Such innovations have already led to significant decreases in crime rates for early-adopter cities, but to maximize their impact, we need wider adoption. We have the means to significantly cut crime, respond to emergencies, and save lives. It’s time for a national upgrade to our public safety systems.

这些创新技术已经使先行城市的犯罪率显著下降，但要最大限度地发挥其影响，我们还需要更广泛的应用。我们有能力大幅减少犯罪、应对紧急情况并拯救生命。现在是对我们的公共安全系统进行全国性升级的时候了。

American Dynamism

美国活力

1）Smart Grids Will Power an Increasingly Electrified World

智能电网将为日益电气化的世界提供动力

The U.S. urgently needs to revitalize energy-intensive sectors. By bypassing traditional wiring infrastructure, tech offers a solution to growing grid complexity. Distributed energy resources such as residential solar, home energy storage, and even small modular nuclear reactors not only provide reliable personal power or increased grid resiliency, but also the capability to sell surplus back to the grid. To implement this on a large scale, however, the grid must also transition from a unidirectional power flow model — from large power plants to consumers — to a “smart grid” that supports bi-directional flows from diverse sources and locations.

美国迫切需要振兴能源密集型行业。通过绕过传统的布线基础设施，科技为日益复杂的电网提供了解决方案。分布式能源资源，如住宅太阳能、家庭储能，甚至小型模块化核反应堆，不仅能提供可靠的个人电力或提高电网弹性，还能将剩余电力卖回电网。然而，要大规模实现这一目标，电网还必须从单向电力流动模式（从大型发电厂到消费者）过渡到支持来自不同来源和地点的双向流动的"智能电网"。

This shift in energy sources demands our most capable builders. Thus far, the transition from fossil fuels has been hampered by grid stability and the friction of integrating new power assets. Though cheap solar, wind, and natural gas have reduced electricity generation costs over the past decade, delivering that power to consumers when they need it has become significantly more expensive. The electric grid is too important to get wrong — the pervasive threat of rolling blackouts is unacceptable. At stake: Modern amenities and our industrial competitiveness. 

能源的这种转变需要我们最有能力的建设者。迄今为止，电网稳定性和整合新电力资产的摩擦阻碍了从化石燃料的过渡。尽管廉价的太阳能、风能和天然气在过去十年中降低了发电成本，但在消费者需要时将电力输送给他们的成本却大大增加。电网太重要了，不能出任何差错--无处不在的滚动停电威胁是不可接受的。这事关重大： 现代设施和我们的工业竞争力。

2）Cost-Effective Swarming for Defense

经济高效的蜂群防御

To prepare for future conflicts, the U.S. has invested in unmanned systems such as aerial, maritime, and ground drones designed to overwhelm enemy defenses. But without cost-effective swarming, taking full advantage of overwhelming adversaries via attritable mass — unmanned aerial vehicles and other units we are comfortable losing, from an economic perspective — is limited. Swarming is the essential ingredient needed to transition the DoD’s force from one asset with many operators (an aircraft carrier, for example) to one operator controlling many assets in tandem: a true system of systems operating model. A network of autonomous systems collaborating, communicating, and coordinating would unlock a new paradigm in defense.

为了应对未来的冲突，美国投资了无人系统，如空中、海上和地面无人机，旨在压垮敌人的防御。但是，如果没有具有成本效益的蜂群作战，那么通过可减员质量--无人机和其他从经济角度来看我们可以承受损失的单位--来充分利用压倒对手的优势就会受到限制。蜂群化是将国防部的部队从拥有众多操作人员的单一资产（例如航空母舰）转变为由一名操作人员串联控制众多资产所需的基本要素：这是一种真正的系统运作模式。自主系统网络的协作、沟通和协调将开启一种新的防御模式。

3）Software Eats Atoms via Tech-First Buyouts

软件通过科技先行收购吃掉原子

Many American Dynamism companies operate in markets where value is ultimately realized in the material world. However, such companies often build their business around a core software advantage. I believe we’ll see more companies extend the scale of their software advantages by making acquisitions and implementing their software advantage post-acquisition.

许多 "美国活力 "公司所经营的市场，其价值最终要通过物质世界来实现。然而，这些公司往往围绕核心软件优势开展业务。我相信，我们会看到更多的公司通过收购扩大其软件优势的规模，并在收购后实施其软件优势。

There are a couple key reasons companies pursue this strategy:

公司采取这种战略有几个主要原因：

1) To buy scale, in the form of operational capacity and distribution (e.g., Metropolis’ take-private acquisition of SP Plus)

1）以运营能力和分销的形式购买规模（例如，Metropolis 对 SP Plus 的私有化收购）

2) To expand the product platform (e.g., Anduril’s acquisitions of various hardware systems)

2) 扩大产品平台（如 Anduril 对各种硬件系统的收购）

Depending on the reason behind the acquisition, these transactions can take different forms, including the buyout of an incumbent/prospective customer, roll-ups of a fragmented market, or product-focused strategic acquisitions. For these technology-led buyouts, the common thread is that the acquirer improves the profile of the acquired business, primarily with a technology advantage. This opportunity holds particular relevance to American Dynamism companies, which often require a synthesis of software, physical capital, and operations.

根据收购背后的原因，这些交易可以采取不同的形式，包括对现有/潜在客户的收购、对分散市场的整合或以产品为重点的战略收购。对于这些以技术为主导的收购，其共同点是收购方主要通过技术优势来提升被收购企业的形象。这种机会与美国动力公司特别相关，因为这些公司往往需要软件、实体资本和运营的综合。

Why now? There are a number of converging factors, but a particularly salient one is the power of the current AI wave to dramatically increase margins and scalability of services for operations-heavy businesses. 

为什么是现在？有许多因素交织在一起，但其中一个特别突出的因素是，当前的人工智能浪潮能够大幅提高运营重型企业的服务利润和可扩展性。

4）New Applications for Computer Vision and Video Intelligence

计算机视觉和视频智能的新应用

In 2024, we’ll likely see new applications of computer vision and video intelligence in the physical world. Leveraging insights from video data has become commonplace in the enterprise to help companies make better-informed business decisions. This capability could be even more powerful in the real world, given the richer, more comprehensive nature of the available data. However, many industries today still lack modern systems to capture and make sense of video. Customers often have no existing video infrastructure or use legacy video systems that are difficult to integrate with modern software.

2024 年，我们可能会看到计算机视觉和视频智能在物理世界中的新应用。在企业中，利用视频数据的洞察力帮助公司做出更明智的商业决策已变得司空见惯。在现实世界中，由于可用数据更丰富、更全面，这种能力可能会更加强大。然而，当今许多行业仍然缺乏现代系统来捕捉和理解视频。客户往往没有现有的视频基础设施，或者使用的是难以与现代软件集成的传统视频系统。

Businesses are tackling this problem by leveraging a hardware + software model, selling both the video hardware cameras as well as the software to customers. These businesses often tailor their go-to-market approach to target a very specific customer and best serve their particular needs.

企业正在利用硬件+软件模式解决这一问题，向客户销售视频硬件摄像机和软件。这些企业通常会针对特定客户量身定制市场推广方法，以最好地满足他们的特殊需求。

For example, companies like Flock Safety and Verkada are both examples of this software + hardware model. Both have built large businesses around keeping residential neighborhoods and schools safe, respectively. The same success could be found in other industries, including in transportation (e.g., roads and ports), industrials (e.g., plants and factories), agriculture, or mining.

例如，Flock Safety 和 Verkada 等公司都是这种软件+硬件模式的典范。这两家公司都分别围绕住宅区和学校的安全建立了庞大的业务。其他行业也可以取得同样的成功，包括交通（如公路和港口）、工业（如工厂和厂房）、农业或采矿业。

5）A New Age of Maritime Exploration

海洋探索的新时代

Generations ago, our ancestors took to the seas to explore. Yet today we know more about the surface of Mars than we do about our own planet’s seabed. A new age of maritime exploration is changing that, and founders are leading the way.

几代人之前，我们的祖先就开始了海洋探险。然而，今天我们对火星表面的了解要多于对地球海底的了解。海洋探索的新时代正在改变这一现状，而创始人正在引领这一潮流。

Maritime faces similar reliability and engineering challenges as aerospace, and many of the technologies pioneered by the latest space age can be readily applied; meanwhile, the size and importance of the commercial and defense markets provide substantial reward.

海事面临着与航空航天类似的可靠性和工程挑战，而最新太空时代开创的许多技术都可以随时应用；同时，商业和国防市场的规模和重要性也带来了丰厚的回报。

Companies like Flexport, Saildrone, Saronic, and others have already started modernizing maritime, and we anticipate that continued geopolitical, supply chain, and climate disruptions will further accelerate demand for change.

Flexport、Saildrone、Saronic 等公司已经开始对海事进行现代化改造，我们预计，持续的地缘政治、供应链和气候干扰将进一步加速变革需求。

Advances in AI, hardware, and computer vision present opportunities to transform our cities, ports, and trade networks with autonomous, modernized ferries, container ships, and fishing fleets. Robots will help sustainably mine precious materials from the seafloor, map and survey waterways, and monitor the health of our ecosystems. New generations of naval and coast guard vessels, ships, and submarines will protect our supply chains and shores. Technology is once again returning to maritime.  

人工智能、硬件和计算机视觉方面的进步为我们提供了机会，利用自主、现代化的渡轮、集装箱船和捕鱼船队来改造我们的城市、港口和贸易网络。机器人将帮助以可持续的方式开采海底的珍贵材料，绘制和勘测水道，并监测我们生态系统的健康状况。新一代海军和海岸警卫队舰艇、船舶和潜艇将保护我们的供应链和海岸。技术再次回归海洋。

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Bio + Health

生物与健康

6）Democratizing “Miracle Drugs”

"神奇药物 "普及化

In 2023, a wave of therapies hailed as miracle drugs — including GLP-1’s and curative cell and gene therapies — had a profound impact in patients’ lives. But our current insurance system is not set up to bear the cost of these therapies (or to accurately gauge their value, given that some are curative), nor are our healthcare providers prepared to manage the complex logistics, data collection, and clinical operations needed to realize the full benefits of these therapies. 

2023 年，一波被誉为奇迹药物的疗法--包括 GLP-1 以及治疗性细胞和基因疗法--对患者的生活产生了深远的影响。但是，我们目前的保险体系还不足以承担这些疗法的费用（或准确衡量其价值，因为有些疗法是治疗性的），我们的医疗服务提供者也没有准备好管理复杂的物流、数据收集和临床操作，而这些都是实现这些疗法的全部益处所必需的。

We look forward to seeing builders innovating at the intersection of policy, biopharmaceutical manufacturing, financing, and clinical operations so we have viable means to bring these “miracle drugs” to market without bankrupting or breaking the system. 

我们期待看到建设者们在政策、生物制药生产、融资和临床运作等方面进行创新，从而使我们有可行的方法将这些 "奇迹药物 "推向市场，而不至于让整个系统破产或崩溃。

7）Programming Medicine’s Final Frontier

编程医学的最后前沿

Where are the reusable rockets for biotech? Traditional drug development is painstakingly time-consuming, risky, and expensive. It’s highly bespoke, too; one molecule has no bearing on the next molecule that gets developed — like traditional rockets, they’re one-time use only. 

生物技术的可重复使用火箭在哪里？传统的药物开发费时费力、风险高、成本高。它也是高度定制化的；一个分子对下一个分子的开发没有任何影响--就像传统火箭一样，它们只能一次性使用。

That’s changing. SpaceX’s rocket reusability has transformed space travel, lowering costs and expanding horizons. Similarly, potentially curative programmable medicines like gene therapy can reuse components, like the delivery vehicles used to target specific cells, while swapping out the genetic cargo. The next mission uses the same rocket to deliver a different payload to a new destination.

这种情况正在改变。SpaceX 火箭的可重复使用性改变了太空旅行，降低了成本，扩大了视野。同样，基因疗法等具有潜在治疗效果的可编程药物可以重复使用组件，如用于靶向特定细胞的运载工具，同时更换基因货物。下一次任务将使用相同的火箭，把不同的有效载荷运送到新的目的地。

The FDA is looking to the skies and taking a page out of the FAA’s approach to aviation safety — rigorous, yet adaptive — recently launching its new Office of Therapeutics Products and piloting Operation Warp Speed for rare disease to create more transparent and flexible processes for evaluating and approving programmable medicines. Imagine a future where we re-deploy, not re-invent, innovation. It will revolutionize how we make medicines, and where these medicines can take us. 

美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）正将目光投向天空，并借鉴美国联邦航空局（FAA）的航空安全方法--严谨而又适应性强--最近成立了新的治疗产品办公室（Office of Therapeutics Products），并针对罕见病试行 "翘速行动"（Operation Warp Speed），为评估和批准可编程药物创建更加透明和灵活的流程。想象一下我们重新部署而不是重新发明创新的未来。这将彻底改变我们制造药品的方式，以及这些药品能为我们带来什么。

8）Enabling Our Healthcare Workforce to Do More

让我们的医疗保健人员能够做更多工作

As a physician-scientist, I’m always energized by new technologies that enable our existing clinical workforce to practice their superpowers at the next level. This could mean adding novel medicines to our therapeutic arsenal or developing new care delivery capabilities that fundamentally change how care teams spend their most valuable resource: time.

作为一名医生科学家，我总是为那些能让我们现有的临床团队在更高水平上发挥超能力的新技术而感到振奋。这可能意味着为我们的治疗武器库增添新药，或者开发新的护理服务能力，从根本上改变护理团队如何利用他们最宝贵的资源：时间。

To this end, in 2024, I’m excited by software and data platforms that fundamentally empower providers. From ambient note-taking within EHRs, to intelligent automation of always-on triage, to precision treatment planning, there are a multitude of ways AI can reduce burnout and administrative burden and optimize physicians’ ability to provide the best and most compassionate care to patients.

为此，在 2024 年，从根本上增强医疗服务提供者能力的软件和数据平台令我兴奋不已。从电子病历（EHR）中的环境笔记，到始终在线的智能自动化分诊，再到精确的治疗计划，人工智能可以通过多种方式减少职业倦怠和行政负担，优化医生为患者提供最好、最体贴护理的能力。

Taking this idea one step further, I see a future where AI-enabled platforms could be the key that unlocks greater value-based care adoption. To date, value-based care has lagged short of its full potential, but the provider-enabling possibilities of AI could alter that trajectory for the better. 

如果将这一想法更进一步，我认为未来人工智能平台将成为开启更多价值医疗应用的钥匙。迄今为止，以价值为基础的医疗尚未充分发挥其潜力，但人工智能对医疗服务提供者的赋能可能会更好地改变这一轨迹。

9）AI Will Supercharge the Future of Health

人工智能将为未来的健康事业注入活力

Science and healthcare have long been behind the curve on software adoption. But what was once a liability is now an opportunity, as AI leapfrogs existing software and revolutionizes healthcare tech.

长期以来，科学和医疗保健行业在软件应用方面一直处于落后状态。但是，随着人工智能飞跃现有软件并彻底改变医疗保健技术，曾经的负担现在变成了机遇。

Other industries that are running more efficiently on non-AI software might take more time to adopt AI. But healthcare, which is reliant on pagers, fax machines, and a bevy of humans doing manual data input, is primed for AI integration. Making this revolution easier is the fact that healthcare is the only industry with existing regulations for AI, in FDA’s regulatory framework.

其他行业在非人工智能软件上运行效率更高，采用人工智能可能需要更多时间。但是，依赖传呼机、传真机和大量人工数据输入的医疗保健行业，已经为人工智能的整合做好了准备。让这场革命变得更容易的是，医疗保健行业是美国食品及药物管理局（FDA）监管框架中唯一对人工智能有现行规定的行业。

In 2024, I’m looking to see these leapfrog moments taking place across the science and healthcare industry, improving the lives of providers and patients by orders of magnitude.

2024 年，我希望看到这些跨越式发展的时刻能够在整个科学和医疗保健行业中出现，从而极大地改善医疗服务提供者和患者的生活。

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Consumer Tech

消费者技术

10）Voice-First Apps Will Become Integral to Our Lives

语音优先的应用程序将融入我们的生活

AI will finally unlock voice-first apps in the coming year, particularly in the companion and productivity categories.  

人工智能终将在未来一年解锁语音优先应用程序，尤其是在陪护和生产力类别中。

Despite being the oldest and most common form of human communication, voice has never really worked as an interface for engaging with technology — earlier this year, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella called the past decade’s generation of voice assistants (including his company’s own, Cortana) “dumb as a rock.” Historically, people have been most likely to use smart speakers for straightforward tasks like playing music or checking the weather, not derive meaningful value from voice interactivity. Now, however, large language models have enabled virtual assistants to achieve human-level conversational capabilities. 

尽管语音是人类最古老、最常见的交流方式，但它从未真正成为与技术互动的界面--今年早些时候，微软首席执行官萨蒂亚-纳德拉（Satya Nadella）称过去十年的语音助手（包括微软自己的 Cortana）"笨得像块石头"。从历史上看，人们最有可能使用智能扬声器来完成播放音乐或查询天气等简单任务，而不是从语音交互中获得有意义的价值。然而现在，大型语言模型已经让虚拟助手实现了人类级别的对话能力。

Importantly, voice is such a different modality for interaction that existing apps aren’t naturally equipped to build these experiences. It’s inevitable that obvious AI email features will be incorporated into Gmail, for example, but it’s less likely that Gmail will introduce an AI voice interface in your inbox. In 2024, I expect voice applications to become more useful and integrated into our lives. 

重要的是，语音是一种不同的交互方式，现有的应用程序并不具备打造这些体验的天然条件。例如，明显的人工智能电子邮件功能将不可避免地融入到 Gmail 中，但 Gmail 在收件箱中引入人工智能语音界面的可能性较小。2024 年，我预计语音应用将变得更加有用，并融入我们的生活。

11）Narrowly Tailored, Purpose-Built AI

量身定制的人工智能

In 2024, I predict we’ll see narrower AI solutions. While ChatGPT may be a great general AI assistant, it’s unlikely to “win” for every task. I expect we’ll see an AI platform purpose-built for researchers, a writing generation tool targeted for journalists, and a rendering platform specifically for designers, to give just a few examples.

我预测，在 2024 年，我们将看到范围更窄的人工智能解决方案。虽然 ChatGPT 可能是一款出色的通用人工智能助手，但它不太可能 "胜任 "所有任务。我预计，我们将看到一个专为研究人员打造的人工智能平台，一个专为记者打造的写作生成工具，以及一个专为设计师打造的渲染平台，这只是其中的几个例子。

Over the longer term, I think the products people use on an everyday basis will be tailored to their use cases — whether this is a proprietary underlying model or a special workflow built around it. These companies will have the chance to “own” the data and workflow for a new era of technology; they’ll do this by nailing one category, then expanding. For the initial product, the narrower the better.

从长远来看，我认为人们日常使用的产品将根据他们的用例量身定制--无论是专有的底层模型，还是围绕它构建的特殊工作流程。这些公司将有机会 "拥有 "新技术时代的数据和工作流程；它们将通过锁定一个类别，然后进行扩展来实现这一目标。对于最初的产品来说，范围越窄越好。

12）AI Tools Will Teach Kids

人工智能工具将教育孩子

In 2023, an estimated 30% of college students used tools like ChatGPT for schoolwork (given the nature of survey reporting, the actual figure may be higher). In the coming year, however, generative AI will begin to transform the landscape of early education.

2023 年，估计有 30% 的大学生使用 ChatGPT 等工具完成学校作业（鉴于调查报告的性质，实际数字可能更高）。然而，在未来一年，生成式人工智能将开始改变早期教育的格局。

Generative AI offers immense potential for young minds, fostering innovation and stimulating imagination. Unlike higher education, where concerns about academic integrity prevail, early education can harness AI to create a sandbox of boundless exploration. The key here lies in designing products that not only engage, but also protect our young learners. This necessitates a unique blend of content moderation, user-centric limitations, and age-appropriate interfaces. In 2024, we’re likely to see groundbreaking new AI tools, thoughtfully and meticulously designed for children. These platforms will empower children to safely take advantage of the expansive capabilities of AI and the internet. 

生成式人工智能为青少年的思维提供了巨大的潜力，培养了创新能力，激发了想象力。在高等教育中，人们普遍担心学术诚信问题，而早期教育则不同，它可以利用人工智能创造一个无限探索的沙盒。这里的关键在于设计出既能吸引幼儿，又能保护幼儿的产品。这就需要将内容节制、以用户为中心的限制和适合年龄的界面独特地融合在一起。2024 年，我们很可能会看到为儿童精心设计的开创性新型人工智能工具。这些平台将使儿童能够安全地利用人工智能和互联网的强大功能。

13）Code-Free AI Generators Spark New Behaviors

无代码人工智能生成器激发新行为

As state-of-the-art generative AI technologies drive the marginal cost of creation to near-zero, we’ll see entirely new consumer behaviors emerge. Already, platforms like Midjourney and Ideogram allow us to create incredible images that would have previously taken hours and cost thousands of dollars. Eleven Labs can translate content in seconds — across dozens of languages — with voice cloning and audio dubbing (something I couldn’t have imagined growing up watching poorly dubbed foreign films!). Even non-developers can now stitch together a sequence of generative AI tools to create incredible outputs, without needing coding skills. Glif, for example, is a multimedia platform that lets users generate art, comics, selfies, and more with a simple prompt. 

随着最先进的人工智能生成技术将创作的边际成本降至近乎零，我们将看到全新的消费行为出现。目前，像 Midjourney 和 Ideogram 这样的平台已经可以让我们创造出令人难以置信的图像，而这在以前需要花费数小时和数千美元。Eleven Labs 可以在几秒钟内通过语音克隆和音频配音翻译数十种语言的内容（这是我在观看配音不佳的外国电影时无法想象的！）。即使是非开发人员，现在也可以将一系列生成式人工智能工具拼接在一起，创造出令人难以置信的成果，而无需编码技能。例如，Glif 是一个多媒体平台，用户只需简单的提示，就能生成艺术作品、漫画、自拍等。

14）Creativity Gets Supercharged

创意增压

AI creative tools narrow the gap from idea to execution. For the first time, you don’t need specialized skills and years of training to create a beautiful painting, poem, or song. However, the early products here have largely focused on the simple act of generation: creating an image, crafting an essay, or composing a track. There is immense potential for more interactive tools that act as a creative copilot and enable a true conversation with AI, far beyond the basic inpainting/outpainting functionality we see today.

人工智能创意工具缩小了从创意到执行的差距。这是第一次，你不需要专业技能和多年的培训就能创作出一幅美丽的画、一首诗或一首歌。然而，早期的产品主要集中在简单的生成行为上：创作一幅图像、撰写一篇文章或谱写一首曲子。更多的交互式工具具有巨大的潜力，它们可以充当创意副驾驶员，与人工智能进行真正的对话，远远超出我们今天看到的基本内画/外画功能。

For example, these products might be able to generate outputs that are editable and engage in the iterative process to refine your work. They may allow you to train models on a specific style, subject, or character to generate consistent outputs over time. Or they could help you transform existing content into something new, whether it’s animating a photo, turning a real-world video into anime, or converting a 2D image into a 3D mesh.

例如，这些产品可能能够生成可编辑的输出，并参与迭代过程以完善您的作品。它们可以让您对特定的风格、主题或角色进行模型训练，以生成长期一致的输出结果。或者，它们可以帮助您将现有内容转化为新的内容，无论是将照片制作成动画、将真实世界的视频转化为动漫，还是将二维图像转化为三维网格。

We’re excited about companies building the consumer UI to enable these types of experiences, whether they’re training their own models or leveraging open-source ones.

我们很高兴看到有公司正在构建消费者用户界面，以实现这些类型的体验，无论他们是在训练自己的模型，还是在利用开源模型。

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Crypto

加密货币

15）Entering a New Era of Decentralization

进入权力下放新时代

As we keep seeing over and over again, when control of a powerful system or platform is in the hands of a few (let alone a single leader), it’s too easy to encroach on user freedoms. That’s why decentralization matters: It’s the tool that allows us to democratize systems by enabling credibly neutral, composable internet infrastructure; promoting competition and ecosystem diversity; and allowing users more choice, as well as more ownership. 

正如我们一再看到的那样，当一个强大的系统或平台的控制权掌握在少数人手中时（更不用说一个领导者了），侵犯用户自由就太容易了。这就是为什么去中心化非常重要： 去中心化是实现系统民主化的工具，它支持可信的中立、可组合的互联网基础设施；促进竞争和生态系统多样性；让用户有更多选择，拥有更多所有权。

But decentralization has been hard to achieve in practice — at scale — when pitted against the efficiency and stability of centralized systems. Meanwhile, most web3 governance models have involved DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) that use simplified yet burdensome models for governance based on direct democracy or corporate governance — which are not designed for the sociopolitical realities of decentralized governance. However, thanks to the “living laboratory” of web3 over the past few years, more best practices for decentralization have been emerging. These include models for decentralization that can accommodate applications with richer features; and also include methods such as DAOs embracing Machiavellian principles to design more effective decentralized governance that holds leadership accountable. As such models evolve, we should soon see unprecedented levels of decentralized coordination, operational functionality, and innovations. 

但是，在与集中式系统的效率和稳定性相比较时，去中心化在实践中很难大规模实现。与此同时，大多数网络3治理模式都涉及DAOs（去中心化自治组织），这些组织使用基于直接民主或公司治理的简化但繁琐的治理模式，而这些模式并不是为去中心化治理的社会政治现实而设计的。然而，在过去几年里，得益于网络3 这一 "活实验室"，出现了更多的非集中化最佳做法。其中包括能容纳功能更丰富的应用程序的去中心化模式；还包括 DAOs 等方法，它们采用马基雅维里原则设计更有效的去中心化治理，让领导层承担责任。随着这些模式的发展，我们很快就会看到前所未有的去中心化协调、业务功能和创新水平。

16）Resetting the UX of the Future

重置未来的用户体验

While it has been much-lamented, the fundamentals of user experience in crypto haven’t actually changed much since 2016. It’s still too complicated: self-custodying secret keys; connecting wallets with decentralized applications (dApps); sending signed transactions into increasingly many network endpoints; more. It’s more than we can expect users to learn in their first few minutes in a crypto app.

尽管人们对此惋惜不已，但自 2016 年以来，加密货币用户体验的基本要素实际上并没有发生太大变化。它仍然太复杂了：自我保管秘钥；将钱包与去中心化应用程序（dApps）连接起来；向越来越多的网络终端发送签名交易；等等。我们不能指望用户在使用加密应用的最初几分钟内就学会这些。

But now, developers are actively testing and deploying new tools that could reset frontend UX (user experience) for crypto in the year ahead. One such tool includes passkeys that simplify signing into apps and websites across a user’s devices; unlike passwords, which are more vulnerable and require manual work from users, passkeys are automatically, cryptographically generated. Other innovations include smart accounts, which make accounts themselves programmable and therefore simpler to manage; embedded wallets, which are built into an application and can therefore make onboarding frictionless; MPC (multi-party computation), which makes it easier for third parties to support signing without custodying users’ keys; advanced RPC (remote procedure call) endpoints that can recognize what users want and fill in the gaps; much more. All of these not only help web3 go more mainstream, but can make the UX better and more secure than in web2. 

但现在，开发者们正在积极测试和部署新工具，这些工具可能会在未来一年重置加密货币的前端用户体验（UX）。其中一种工具包括通行密钥，它可以简化用户在不同设备上登录应用程序和网站的过程；与密码不同的是，通行密钥是通过加密技术自动生成的，而密码则更加脆弱，需要用户手动操作。其他创新还包括智能账户，它使账户本身可编程，因此更易于管理；嵌入式钱包，它内置在应用程序中，因此可以使登录无障碍；MPC（多方计算），它使第三方更容易支持签名，而无需保管用户的密钥；高级 RPC（远程过程调用）端点，它可以识别用户的需求并填补空白；等等。所有这些不仅有助于 web3 成为主流，还能使用户体验比 web2 更好、更安全。

17）The Rise of the Modular Tech Stack

模块化技术栈的崛起

In the world of networks, one force invariably dominates all others: network effects. Network effects tend to be so powerful that there really are only two kinds of modularity — modularity that extends and strengthens network effects; and modularity that fragments and weakens them. In all but the rarest of cases, only the former ever makes sense, especially when it comes to open source. 

在网络世界中，有一种力量始终支配着其他所有力量：网络效应。网络效应往往是如此强大，以至于实际上只有两种模块化--一种是扩展和加强网络效应的模块化，另一种是分裂和削弱网络效应的模块化。除了极少数情况，只有前者才有意义，尤其是在开源领域。

Monolithic architectures have the advantage of allowing deep integration and optimization across what would otherwise be modular boundaries, leading to greater performance… at least at first. But the biggest advantage of an open-source, modular tech stack is that it unlocks permissionless innovation; allows participants to specialize; and incentivizes more competition. We need more of that in this world. 

单片架构的优势在于，它可以跨越模块化边界进行深度集成和优化，从而提高性能......至少在一开始是这样。但开源、模块化技术堆栈的最大优势在于，它释放了无许可创新，允许参与者专业化，并激励更多竞争。我们需要更多这样的技术。

18）AI + Blockchains Come Together

人工智能与区块链的结合

Decentralized blockchains are a counterbalancing force to centralized AI. AI models (like in ChatGPT) can currently only be trained and operated by a handful of tech giants, since the required compute and training data are prohibitive for smaller players. But with crypto, it becomes possible to create multi-sided, global, permissionless markets where anyone can contribute — and be compensated — for contributing compute or a new dataset to the network for someone who needs it. Tapping into this long tail of resources will allow these markets to drive down the costs of AI, making it more accessible. 

去中心化区块链是对中心化人工智能的一种制衡。人工智能模型（如 ChatGPT 中的模型）目前只能由少数几家科技巨头进行训练和操作，因为所需的计算和训练数据让小公司望而却步。但有了加密货币，就有可能创建多方、全球、无权限的市场，任何人都可以为网络贡献计算能力或新数据集，并获得补偿。利用这些长尾资源将使这些市场能够降低人工智能的成本，使其更容易获得。

But as AI revolutionizes the way we produce information — changing society, culture, politics, the economy — it also creates a world of abundant AI-generated content, including deep fakes. Crypto technology can be used here as well to open the black box; track the origin of things we see online; and much more. We also need to figure out ways to decentralize generative AI and govern it democratically, so that no one actor ends up with the power to decide for all others; web3 is the laboratory for figuring out how. Decentralized, open-source crypto networks will democratize (vs. concentrate) AI innovation, ultimately making it safer for consumers.  

但是，随着人工智能彻底改变了我们生产信息的方式--改变了社会、文化、政治和经济--它也创造了一个由人工智能生成大量内容的世界，包括深度伪造的内容。加密技术在此也可用于打开黑盒、追踪我们在网上看到的事物的来源等等。我们还需要找出方法，对人工智能的生成进行去中心化和民主化管理，这样就不会有一个人最终拥有决定所有其他人的权力；web3 就是找出方法的实验室。去中心化的开源加密网络将使人工智能创新民主化（而不是集中化），最终使消费者更安全。

19）Play to Earn Becomes Play and Earn

玩游戏赚钱变为边玩边赚

In “play to earn” (P2E) games, players would often make real-world (not just virtual) money based on their time and effort playing games. This trend is related to the broader shifts that have been transforming gaming and beyond — from the rise of the creator economy to the changing relationship between people and platforms. Web3 allows us to counter the current norm where all the proceeds of playing and transacting in games go only to gaming companies. Users spend so much time in, and generate so much value for, those platforms that they deserve to be compensated, too.

在 "玩游戏赚钱"（P2E）游戏中，玩家往往会根据自己玩游戏的时间和精力赚取现实世界（而不仅仅是虚拟世界）的金钱。从创造者经济的兴起到人与平台之间关系的变化，这一趋势与游戏及其他领域的广泛变革有关。Web3 让我们能够打破目前游戏和交易的所有收益都归游戏公司所有的常规。用户在这些平台上花费了大量时间，也为这些平台创造了大量价值，因此他们也理应得到补偿。

But games were not necessarily designed to be a workplace (at least, not for the majority of players). What we really need are games that are both fun to play and that also allow players to capture more of the value they produce. As such, P2E is increasingly morphing into “play and earn”, setting an important distinction between gaming and workplace. The dynamics of how resulting gaming economies are managed will continue to shift as we see P2E evolve beyond its initial growing pains. Ultimately, however, this will not be a separate trend and will just become part of games.

但游戏并不一定要设计成工作场所（至少对大多数玩家来说不是）。我们真正需要的是既能让玩家玩得开心，又能让玩家获得更多价值的游戏。因此，P2E 越来越多地演变为 "边玩边赚"，在游戏和工作场所之间做出了重要区分。当我们看到 P2E 经历了最初的成长之痛后，如何管理由此产生的游戏经济的动态将继续发生变化。不过，最终这将不再是一个独立的趋势，而将成为游戏的一部分。

20）When AI Becomes the Gamemaker, Crypto Offers Guarantees

当人工智能成为游戏制造者，加密货币提供保障

As someone who spends a lot of time thinking about web3 games and the future of gaming, it’s clear to me that AI agents in games must come with guarantees: that they’re based on certain models, and that those models are executed without corruption. Otherwise, games will lose integrity. 

作为一个经常思考网页游戏和游戏未来的人，我清楚地认识到，游戏中的人工智能代理必须有保障：它们基于特定的模型，而且这些模型在执行时不会损坏。否则，游戏将失去完整性。

When lore, terrain, narrative, and logic are all procedurally generated — in other words, when AI becomes the game maker — we’re going to want to know that the game maker was credibly neutral. We’re going to want to know that that world was built with guarantees. The most important thing that crypto offers is such guarantees — including the ability to understand, diagnose, and penalize when something goes wrong with AI. In this sense, “AI alignment” is really an incentive design problem, in the same way dealing with any human agent is an incentive design problem… and is what crypto is all about. 

当传说、地形、叙事和逻辑都是程序生成的时候--换句话说，当人工智能成为游戏制作者的时候--我们会希望知道游戏制作者是可信的中立者。我们想知道，这个世界是有保障的。加密货币所能提供的最重要的东西就是这种保证--包括在人工智能出错时理解、诊断和惩罚的能力。从这个意义上说，"人工智能对齐 "实际上是一个激励设计问题，就像处理任何人类代理都是一个激励设计问题一样......这也正是加密货币的意义所在。

21）Formal Verification Becomes Less, Well, Formal

正式验证变得不那么正式了

While formal methods are popular for verifying hardware systems, they are less common in software development. For most developers outside of such hard or safety-critical systems, these methods are too complex, and could add significant costs and delays. However, smart contract developers have different demands: The systems they develop handle billions of dollars; bugs would have devastating consequences, and cannot typically be hotfixed. So there’s a need for more accessible formal verification methods in software and especially smart contract development. 

虽然形式化方法在硬件系统验证中很流行，但在软件开发中却不常见。对于大多数不涉及此类高难度或安全关键型系统的开发人员来说，这些方法过于复杂，可能会增加大量成本和延误。然而，智能合约开发人员有不同的需求： 他们开发的系统需要处理数十亿美元的资金；错误会带来毁灭性的后果，而且通常无法进行热修复。因此，在软件尤其是智能合约开发中，需要更易于使用的形式化验证方法。

This past year, we’ve seen a new wave of tools (including ours) emerge which have much better developer experience than traditional formal systems. These tools leverage the fact that smart contracts are architecturally simpler than regular software — with atomic and deterministic execution; no concurrency or exceptions; small memory footprint and little looping. The performance of these tools is also rapidly improving by leveraging recent breakthroughs in SMT solver performance (SMT solvers use complex algorithms to identify or confirm the absence of bugs in software and hardware logic). With increased adoption of formal methods-inspired tooling among developers and security specialists, we can expect the next wave of smart contract protocols to be more robust and less prone to costly hacks. 

在过去的一年里，我们看到了新一轮的工具浪潮（包括我们的工具），它们比传统的形式系统具有更好的开发者体验。这些工具利用了智能合约在架构上比普通软件更简单这一事实--具有原子性和确定性执行；没有并发或异常；内存占用小，循环少。利用最近在 SMT 求解器性能方面取得的突破（SMT 求解器使用复杂的算法来识别或确认软件和硬件逻辑中不存在错误），这些工具的性能也在迅速提高。随着开发人员和安全专家越来越多地采用形式化方法启发的工具，我们可以预期下一波智能合约协议将更加稳健，更不容易受到代价高昂的黑客攻击。

22）NFTs Become Ubiquitous Brand Assets

NFT 成为无处不在的品牌资产

More and more established brands have been introducing digital assets to mainstream consumers in the form of NFTs. Starbucks, for example, has introduced a gamified loyalty program in which participants collect digital assets as they explore the company’s coffee offerings (not to mention an AR pumpkin spice maze!). Nike and Reddit, meanwhile, have developed digital collectible NFTs that they’ve explicitly marketed to a broad audience. But brands can do so much more: They can use NFTs to represent and reinforce customer identity and community affiliations; bridge physical goods and their digital representations; and even co-create new products and experiences alongside their most dedicated enthusiasts. Last year, we saw a growing trend toward inexpensive NFTs for large-scale collection as consumer goods — often managed through custodial wallets and/or “Layer 2” blockchains with correspondingly low transaction costs. Heading into 2024, many of the conditions are in place for NFTs to become ubiquitous as digital brand assets — as Steve Kaczynski and I explain in a forthcoming book — for a wide array of companies and communities. 

越来越多的知名品牌开始以 NFT 的形式向主流消费者引入数字资产。例如，星巴克推出了一项游戏化的忠诚度计划，参与者在探索该公司咖啡产品的过程中可以收集数字资产（更不用说AR南瓜香料迷宫了！）。与此同时，耐克和 Reddit 也开发了数字收藏 NFT，并明确向广大受众推广。但品牌可以做的远不止这些： 它们可以利用 NFT 来代表和强化客户身份和社区归属；在实体商品和数字代表之间架起桥梁；甚至与最忠实的爱好者共同创造新产品和新体验。去年，我们看到了一种日益增长的趋势，即以廉价的 NFT 作为消费品进行大规模收藏--通常通过托管钱包和/或 "第 2 层 "区块链进行管理，交易成本相应较低。进入 2024 年，正如史蒂夫-卡钦斯基（Steve Kaczynski）和我在即将出版的一本书中解释的那样，许多条件都已具备，NFTs 作为数字品牌资产将在众多公司和社区中变得无处不在。

23）SNARKs Go Mainstream

SNARK 走向主流

Technologists have historically had the following strategies for verifying computational workloads: 1) re-executing the compute on a trusted machine; 2) executing compute on a machine specialized to the task, aka (TEE trusted execution environment); or 3) executing compute on credibly neutral infrastructure, like a blockchain. Each of these strategies has had limits in terms of cost or network scalability, but now, SNARKs (Succinct Non-interactive ARguments of Knowledge) are becoming more usable. SNARKs allow the computation of a “cryptographic receipt” of some compute workload by an untrusted “prover” impossible to forge: In the past computing such a receipt cost 10^9 work overhead over the original compute; recent advances are bringing this number closer to 10^6. 

技术专家历来有以下验证计算工作负载的策略： 1) 在可信机器上重新执行计算；2) 在专门用于任务的机器上执行计算，又称（TEE 可信执行环境）；或 3) 在可信的中立基础设施上执行计算，如区块链。上述每种策略在成本或网络可扩展性方面都有局限性，但现在，SNARKs（简洁非交互式知识论证）正变得越来越有用。SNARKs 允许一个不可信任的 "证明人 "对某些计算工作量计算出一个无法伪造的 "加密收据"：在过去，计算这样一个收据的成本是原始计算的 10^9 工作开销，而最近的进步使这个数字接近 10^6。

SNARKs therefore become viable in situations where the initial compute provider can bear a 10^6 overhead and the clients cannot re-execute or store initial data. The use cases that result are many: Edge devices in the Internet of Things can verify upgrades. Media editing software can embed content authenticity and transformation data; while remixed memes could pay homage to initial sources. LLM inferences could include authenticity information. We could have self-verifying IRS forms, unforgeable bank audits, and many more uses that benefit consumers ahead. 

因此，在初始计算提供者可以承受 10^6 的开销，而客户无法重新计算或存储初始数据的情况下，SNARK 就变得可行了。由此产生的用例有很多： 物联网中的边缘设备可以验证升级。媒体编辑软件可以嵌入内容真实性和转换数据；而混音备忘录可以向初始来源致敬。法律知识推论可以包含真实性信息。我们可以拥有自我验证的国税局表格、不可伪造的银行审计以及更多让消费者受益的用途。（未完待续）